Saudi Market Forecast: Aramco’s Role in Shaping TASI’s Destiny

The Saudi Arabian Oil company (Aramco) has a big influence on the Tadawul All Share Index (TASI) because it makes up 67% of the index. When Aramco's stock price moves, TASI usually follows.

Looking at their weekly charts, we see that they often move together. But over the past year, Aramco's price dropped while TASI stayed steady. Now, Aramco's price is bouncing back from the long-term trendline support, which could mean TASI will get stronger too.

Current chart (Daily) analysis:

• TASI is nearing support at 11,300-11,500 after falling from its channel.
• Aramco broke free from its triangle pattern, looking to rise.

We've come up with three possible scenarios for what might happen to TASI next based on Aramco's price movements.

Scenario - 1

• If Aramco's price breaks above SAR 29 and sustains, TASI may experience a potential upmove, although this might not be sustainable in the long term.

Scenario - 2

• If Aramco consolidates below SAR 29, allowing TASI to establish a strong foothold at its trendline support, then a subsequent breakout from Aramco could unlock a promising investment opportunity.

Scenario - 3

• If both Aramco and TASI fall to their trendline support and bounce back, it could create an investment opportunity.

While short-term market fluctuations are possible, the long-term sentiment for TASI appears bullish, driven by Aramco's rebound and potential upside.